Two tables below. The first holds the rows scored live... deals logged within days of being announced, before anyone could know how they turn out. The second is the calibration set: the deals the scoring system was built and checked against, scored after the fact and labelled that way. This is the receipt.
Posture is the company's role in the deal: Empire-building (buying something), Focus (selling off a piece of itself), or Partnership (a joint venture, alliance or strategic partnership... working together, nobody buys anybody). Structure is what kind of deal it is: Scale (more of the same), Complementary (buying a capability they lack), or Convergence (combining two worlds to make something new). Cross-industry in front means the two sides come from clearly different industries.
Since announced is the live one: the price the stock closed at on the day of the deal, and how far it has moved against the overall market since. It updates every night, so it changes between visits.
The 30d, 90d and 1yr columns are a different thing, and sit behind a dividing line for that reason. They are fixed research horizons measured 30, 90 and 252 trading days after the deal (roughly six weeks, four months and a year), calculated on the frozen method and then left alone. A dot means not enough time has passed yet... that is the point of scoring in public, the number arrives when it arrives. Status shows how much of the outcome is in so far.
Both are measured against the market, not raw price, so a stock that rose less than the index still reads as negative.
Scored is the date this row was committed and pushed to a public repo. GitHub records the push time on its own servers, independent of anything set locally in the commit, and the full history has been public since this page went live. Anyone can audit it.
These are research observations about how the market has reacted historically, not investment advice and not predictions about any single stock. The patterns are exploratory and small-sample. Every quarter I report back, including the misses.
Every row here was scored within 14 days of the deal being announced, before any of the outcome numbers existed.
Swipe sideways for the outcome columns →
| Company | Deal date | Scored | Posture | Structure | Since announced | 30d | 90d | 1yr | Status | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-18 | Partnership | Complementary | +0.7%from $225.01 | +1.2% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| WEC Energy Group WEC | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-20 | Empire-building | Scale | -5.6%from $110.52 | -8.6% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Newmont NEM | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-16 | Partnership | Scale | +1.0%from $117.26 | +9.0% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Prologis PLD | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-05† | Empire-building | Scale | -3.7%from $139.05 | -2.6% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Intercontinental Exchange ICE | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | -6.1%from $154.28 | +0.4% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
† 1 row scored before this ledger fetched the underlying 8-K, so the rubric was applied to a filing index rather than to the document. Re-judged against the real filing. It was unchanged: the original score held. The original date stands, because the original score stands.
The live Since announced figure and the 30d/90d/1yr columns measure differently, and can legitimately disagree. Since announced is the plain gap to the market, regrown nightly. The outcome columns freeze at fixed horizons and judge each stock against what its own market sensitivity implied, giving no credit for the trend it was already on... a stock that was falling into its announcement does not score points for levelling off. When the two tell different stories, the outcome column is the stricter measure.
Swipe sideways for the outcome columns →
| Company | Deal date | Scored | Posture | Structure | Since announced | 30d | 90d | 1yr | Status | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cboe Global Markets CBOE | 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-30 | Partnership | Complementary | +3.5%from $253.26 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Vertiv VRT | 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-25 | Empire-building | Scale | +1.6%from $245.30 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Akamai Technologies AKAM | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-25 | Partnership | Scale | +3.4%from $104.52 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Royal Caribbean Group RCL | 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-24 | Partnership | Complementary | +13.7%from $230.30 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| TransDigm Group TDG | 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-22 | Empire-building | Complementary | +0.3%from $1,109.65 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Generac GNRC | 2026-09-16 | 2026-09-17 | Partnership | Scale | +19.8%from $175.11 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Copart CPRT | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-11 | Empire-building | Complementary | -12.6%from $30.75 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Analog Devices ADI | 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-10 | Empire-building | Complementary | +8.8%from $365.07 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| GE Aerospace GE | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-09 | Empire-building | Complementary | -5.4%from $334.91 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Stanley Black & Decker SWK | 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-05 | Focus | Scale | -6.4%from $94.51 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-09-02 | 2026-09-04 | Empire-building | Complementary | +0.8%from $224.41 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Vertiv VRT | 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-03 | Empire-building | Complementary | -3.3%from $255.97 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Keurig Dr Pepper KDP | 2026-08-28 | 2026-09-02 | Focus | Scale | -2.9%from $32.18 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Schlumberger SLB | 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-01 | Empire-building | Complementary | -16.7%from $60.10 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Aon plc AON | 2026-08-30 | 2026-09-01 | Empire-building | Scale | -13.8%from $321.52 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Oneok OKE | 2026-08-28 | 2026-09-01 | Empire-building | Scale | -7.7%from $94.76 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| WEC Energy Group WEC | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-20 | Empire-building | Scale | -5.6%from $110.52 | -8.6% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-18 | Partnership | Complementary | +0.7%from $225.01 | +1.2% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Newmont NEM | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-16 | Partnership | Scale | +1.0%from $117.26 | +9.0% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Teledyne Technologies TDY | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-11† | Empire-building | Complementary | -11.1%from $690.25 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Prologis PLD | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-05† | Empire-building | Scale | -3.7%from $139.05 | -2.6% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Intercontinental Exchange ICE | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | -6.1%from $154.28 | +0.4% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
† 2 rows scored before this ledger fetched the underlying 8-K, so the rubric was applied to a filing index rather than to the document. Re-judged against the real filing. All were unchanged: the original score held. The original date stands, because the original score stands.
The live Since announced figure and the 30d/90d/1yr columns measure differently, and can legitimately disagree. Since announced is the plain gap to the market, regrown nightly. The outcome columns freeze at fixed horizons and judge each stock against what its own market sensitivity implied, giving no credit for the trend it was already on... a stock that was falling into its announcement does not score points for levelling off. When the two tell different stories, the outcome column is the stricter measure.
These 6 rows were scored well after their event, with a scoring lag from 48 to 101 days (median 62). This is the set the scoring system was built and checked against, not a record of live scoring. The lag is stated on every row so nobody has to take that on faith.
Swipe sideways for the outcome columns →
| Company | Deal date | Scored | Lag | Posture | Structure | Since announced | 30d | 90d | 1yr | Status | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eaton ETN | 2026-06-10 | 2026-07-28 | 48 | Empire-building | Scale | +10.1%from $375.46 | +5.8% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| CoStar Group CSGP | 2026-05-28 | 2026-07-24 | 57 | Empire-building | Complementary | -17.8%from $32.30 | -10.0% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Tractor Supply TSCO | 2026-05-28 | 2026-07-24 | 57 | Empire-building | Convergence | -0.8%from $31.37 | -2.7% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Boston Scientific BSX | 2026-05-18 | 2026-07-24 | 67 | Empire-building | Complementary | -25.0%from $55.92 | -25.3% | -22.9% | · | 90d in | SEC |
| American Express AXP | 2026-05-04 | 2026-07-24† | 81 | Focus | Scale | -11.8%from $319.21 | +3.2% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Leidos LDOS | 2026-04-14 | 2026-07-24 | 101 | Partnership | Cross-industry Complementary | -31.2%from $156.17 | -21.1% | -12.3% | · | 90d in | SEC |
† 1 row scored before this ledger fetched the underlying 8-K, so the rubric was applied to a filing index rather than to the document. Re-judged against the real filing. It was unchanged: the original score held. The original date stands, because the original score stands.
The live Since announced figure and the 30d/90d/1yr columns measure differently, and can legitimately disagree. Since announced is the plain gap to the market, regrown nightly. The outcome columns freeze at fixed horizons and judge each stock against what its own market sensitivity implied, giving no credit for the trend it was already on... a stock that was falling into its announcement does not score points for levelling off. When the two tell different stories, the outcome column is the stricter measure.
This page shows what got scored and how it moved. It does not tell you why: who the players were, what actually changed hands, or the principle underneath it. That goes out on Dealmakers Digest.
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