Two tables below. The first holds the live calls... deals scored within days of being announced, before anyone could know how they turn out. The second is the calibration set: the deals the scoring system was built and checked against, scored after the fact and labelled that way. This is the receipt.
Posture is the company's role in the deal: Empire-building (buying something), Focus (selling off a piece of itself), or Partnership (a joint venture, alliance or strategic partnership... working together, nobody buys anybody). Structure is what kind of deal it is: Scale (more of the same), Complementary (buying a capability they lack), or Convergence (combining two worlds to make something new). Cross-industry in front means the two sides come from clearly different industries.
Since announced is the live one: the price the stock closed at on the day of the deal, and how far it has moved against the overall market since. It updates every night, so it changes between visits.
The 30d, 90d and 1yr columns are a different thing, and sit behind a dividing line for that reason. They are fixed research horizons measured 30, 90 and 252 trading days after the deal (roughly six weeks, four months and a year), calculated on the frozen method and then left alone. A dot means not enough time has passed yet... that is the point of scoring in public, the number arrives when it arrives. Status shows how much of the outcome is in so far.
Both are measured against the market, not raw price, so a stock that rose less than the index still reads as negative.
Scored is the date this row was committed and pushed to a public repo. GitHub records the push time on its own servers, independent of anything set locally in the commit, and the full history has been public since this page went live. Anyone can audit it.
These are research observations about how the market has reacted historically, not investment advice and not predictions about any single stock. The patterns are exploratory and small-sample. Every quarter I report back, including the misses.
Every row here was scored within 14 days of the deal being announced, before any of the outcome numbers existed. All 73 of them are still waiting on the market. The first 30-day numbers land around 2026-09-02.
Swipe sideways for the outcome columns →
| Company | Deal date | Scored | Posture | Structure | Since announced | 30d | 90d | 1yr | Status | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco SYY | 2026-08-12 | 2026-08-13 | Empire-building | Scale | -2.0%from $84.69 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| Boeing BA | 2026-08-12 | 2026-08-13 | Focus | Complementary | -1.0%from $231.20 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Kinder Morgan KMI | 2026-08-12 | 2026-08-13 | Partnership | Scale | +0.4%from $31.73 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| NextEra Energy NEE | 2026-08-11 | 2026-08-12 | Empire-building | Scale | -0.5%from $85.74 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B | 2026-08-11 | 2026-08-12 | Empire-building | Cross-industry Scale | -2.6%from $516.38 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| Martin Marietta Materials MLM | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-11 | Empire-building | Scale | -1.5%from $549.54 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Skyworks Solutions SWKS | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-11 | Empire-building | Complementary | +0.8%from $68.79 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| Teledyne Technologies TDY | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-11 | Empire-building | Complementary | -3.0%from $690.25 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| Intel INTC | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-11 | Partnership | Complementary | +7.0%from $97.52 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Fox Corporation (Class A) FOXA | 2026-08-09 | 2026-08-10 | Empire-building | Complementary | +2.6%from $63.42 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Fox Corporation (Class B) FOX | 2026-08-09 | 2026-08-10 | Empire-building | Complementary | +2.5%from $56.33 | · | · | · | pending | News |
| Skyworks Solutions SWKS | 2026-08-08 | 2026-08-10 | Empire-building | Complementary | +0.8%from $68.79 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Skyworks Solutions SWKS | 2026-08-08 | 2026-08-10 | Focus | Scale | +0.8%from $68.79 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B | 2026-08-08 | 2026-08-09 | Empire-building | Scale | -4.5%from $529.42 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-08-08 | 2026-08-09 | Partnership | Complementary | +3.4%from $217.55 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Palantir Technologies PLTR | 2026-08-08 | 2026-08-09 | Partnership | Cross-industry Convergence | +1.9%from $175.23 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Uber UBER | 2026-08-07 | 2026-08-08 | Empire-building | Scale | +1.0%from $75.02 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| Yum! Brands YUM | 2026-08-07 | 2026-08-08 | Partnership | Scale | -0.5%from $150.76 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Oracle ORCL | 2026-08-07 | 2026-08-08 | Partnership | Convergence | +6.1%from $147.02 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Biogen BIIB | 2026-08-06 | 2026-08-08 | Empire-building | Complementary | +0.9%from $206.28 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Realty Income O | 2026-08-06 | 2026-08-07 | Partnership | Cross-industry Convergence | -0.3%from $62.36 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Martin Marietta Materials MLM | 2026-08-05 | 2026-08-07 | Empire-building | Scale | -2.6%from $553.37 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Clorox CLX | 2026-08-05 | 2026-08-05 | Empire-building | Scale | -0.4%from $105.84 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Prologis PLD | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-05 | Empire-building | Scale | +0.7%from $139.05 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| International Flavors & Fragrances IFF | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-05 | Focus | Scale | +3.1%from $80.89 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Marriott International MAR | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-05 | Partnership | Cross-industry Convergence | +1.3%from $345.20 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| MGM Resorts MGM | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-05 | Partnership | Cross-industry Convergence | -4.5%from $45.72 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Alphabet Inc. (Class C) GOOG | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-05 | Partnership | Complementary | -10.1%from $372.47 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Autodesk ADSK | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-04 | Empire-building | Complementary | +7.2%from $234.71 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Skyworks Solutions SWKS | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-04 | Empire-building | Scale | +11.2%from $61.29 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-04 | Empire-building | Scale | -3.6%from $513.14 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Microsoft MSFT | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-04 | Partnership | Complementary | -0.5%from $487.65 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Convergence | +8.2%from $200.75 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Qualcomm QCOM | 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | +7.6%from $147.61 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Intercontinental Exchange ICE | 2026-07-30 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | -5.5%from $156.27 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| Eli Lilly LLY | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Convergence | -7.2%from $1,210.02 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Meta Platforms META | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Scale | -5.5%from $585.61 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · News |
| ON Semiconductor ON | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | -3.2%from $78.86 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Paramount Skydance PSKY | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | +18.8%from $7.95 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Warner Bros. Discovery WBD | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | +1.6%from $25.64 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · News |
| Johnson & Johnson JNJ | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | -8.4%from $265.53 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Skyworks Solutions SWKS | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | +2.9%from $64.68 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| AT&T T | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Cross-industry Complementary | -5.7%from $24.66 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| NextEra Energy NEE | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | -9.0%from $89.28 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Complementary | +9.0%from $197.01 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Warner Bros. Discovery WBD | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Cross-industry Convergence | +3.4%from $25.61 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| EchoStar SATS | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-02 | Focus | Scale | · | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Complementary | +9.0%from $196.51 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Baker Hughes BKR | 2026-07-26 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | -0.5%from $60.59 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Comcast CMCSA | 2026-07-26 | 2026-08-02 | Focus | Complementary | +9.2%from $22.80 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| AbbVie ABBV | 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | -8.0%from $256.91 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Capital One COF | 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | +2.4%from $207.05 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Complementary | +9.0%from $196.51 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Danaher DHR | 2026-07-24 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | +0.8%from $191.50 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| NextEra Energy NEE | 2026-07-24 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | -9.9%from $89.78 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Advanced Micro Devices AMD | 2026-07-24 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Convergence | -13.1%from $521.95 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| ServiceNow NOW | 2026-07-24 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Complementary | +23.2%from $98.78 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Gartner IT | 2026-07-23 | 2026-08-02 | Focus | Scale | +31.7%from $133.69 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Union Pacific UNP | 2026-07-23 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | -7.9%from $304.33 | · | · | · | pending | SEC · Release |
| Public Storage PSA | 2026-07-22 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | +1.4%from $311.70 | · | · | · | pending | SEC |
| Advanced Micro Devices AMD | 2026-07-22 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Convergence | -16.6%from $552.33 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Carvana CVNA | 2026-07-22 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Convergence | +13.4%from $62.75 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Microsoft MSFT | 2026-07-22 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Complementary | +23.2%from $390.34 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Union Pacific UNP | 2026-07-22 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Complementary | -2.3%from $292.56 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Union Pacific UNP | 2026-07-22 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | -2.3%from $292.56 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B | 2026-07-21 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Scale | -0.3%from $489.65 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Nasdaq NDAQ | 2026-07-21 | 2026-08-02 | Focus | Scale | +4.2%from $90.24 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-07-21 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Convergence | +4.9%from $207.29 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Progressive PGR | 2026-07-21 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Cross-industry Convergence | -2.5%from $205.90 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-07-20 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Complementary | +6.2%from $203.28 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
| Palantir Technologies PLTR | 2026-07-20 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Cross-industry Complementary | +28.1%from $134.85 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Pfizer PFE | 2026-07-20 | 2026-08-02 | Empire-building | Complementary | +3.7%from $24.75 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals REGN | 2026-07-20 | 2026-08-02 | Partnership | Complementary | +15.1%from $672.15 | · | · | · | pending | SEC filings · Release |
These 33 rows were scored well after their event, with a scoring lag from 45 to 119 days (median 78). This is the set the scoring system was built and checked against, not a record of live calls. The lag is stated on every row so nobody has to take that on faith.
Swipe sideways for the outcome columns →
| Company | Deal date | Scored | Lag | Posture | Structure | Since announced | 30d | 90d | 1yr | Status | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biogen BIIB | 2026-06-17 | 2026-08-01 | 45 | Empire-building | Complementary | +1.0%from $198.67 | +2.5% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Qualcomm QCOM | 2026-06-17 | 2026-08-01 | 45 | Partnership | Cross-industry Convergence | -28.0%from $212.97 | -43.2% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Vertiv VRT | 2026-06-12 | 2026-07-29 | 47 | Empire-building | Complementary | -10.1%from $302.87 | -18.3% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Cintas CTAS | 2026-06-12 | 2026-07-29 | 47 | Empire-building | Scale | +9.0%from $176.28 | +23.2% | · | · | 30d in | SEC · Release |
| Kraft Heinz KHC | 2026-06-12 | 2026-07-29 | 47 | Partnership | Cross-industry Convergence | -0.8%from $24.39 | +12.1% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Eaton ETN | 2026-06-11 | 2026-07-28 | 47 | Empire-building | Scale | +9.7%from $393.64 | +0.0% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Keurig Dr Pepper KDP | 2026-04-13 | 2026-07-25 | 103 | Empire-building | Scale | +6.1%from $26.04 | +10.2% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| CoStar Group CSGP | 2026-05-29 | 2026-07-24 | 56 | Empire-building | Complementary | -0.2%from $32.20 | +5.3% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Ecolab ECL | 2026-05-29 | 2026-07-24 | 56 | Empire-building | Complementary | +5.1%from $256.00 | +8.5% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Tractor Supply TSCO | 2026-05-28 | 2026-07-24 | 57 | Empire-building | Convergence | +12.2%from $31.37 | +12.1% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| CVS Health CVS | 2026-05-28 | 2026-07-24 | 57 | Partnership | Complementary | +0.2%from $92.97 | +8.6% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Union Pacific UNP | 2026-05-28 | 2026-07-24 | 57 | Empire-building | Scale | +9.6%from $267.00 | +4.8% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Ford Motor F | 2026-05-21 | 2026-07-24 | 64 | Focus | Complementary | -3.1%from $13.67 | +3.6% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Advanced Micro Devices AMD | 2026-05-21 | 2026-07-24 | 64 | Partnership | Complementary | +3.8%from $449.59 | +5.7% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Keysight Technologies KEYS | 2026-05-21 | 2026-07-24 | 64 | Partnership | Complementary | +0.1%from $337.55 | -23.7% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Boston Scientific BSX | 2026-05-18 | 2026-07-24 | 67 | Empire-building | Complementary | -12.9%from $55.92 | -11.7% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Nasdaq NDAQ | 2026-05-08 | 2026-07-24 | 77 | Partnership | Convergence | +4.3%from $88.91 | -6.9% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Carnival CCL | 2026-05-07 | 2026-07-24 | 78 | Empire-building | Scale | -1.1%from $27.00 | +9.9% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Digital Realty DLR | 2026-05-06 | 2026-07-24 | 79 | Partnership | Complementary | -7.1%from $199.68 | -9.8% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Mastercard MA | 2026-05-06 | 2026-07-24 | 79 | Partnership | Cross-industry Convergence | +9.9%from $491.89 | +1.8% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| American Express AXP | 2026-05-04 | 2026-07-24 | 81 | Focus | Scale | -0.4%from $319.21 | +5.5% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Crown Castle CCI | 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-24 | 84 | Focus | Scale | -23.1%from $89.26 | +0.5% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Vertiv VRT | 2026-04-27 | 2026-07-24 | 88 | Empire-building | Complementary | -19.7%from $322.43 | -30.3% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| PepsiCo PEP | 2026-04-21 | 2026-07-24 | 94 | Partnership | Scale | -20.2%from $154.92 | -8.1% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| TransDigm Group TDG | 2026-04-17 | 2026-07-24 | 98 | Empire-building | Scale | -11.1%from $1,265.88 | -3.7% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Ecolab ECL | 2026-04-15 | 2026-07-24 | 100 | Empire-building | Scale | -9.0%from $270.37 | -7.4% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Leidos LDOS | 2026-04-15 | 2026-07-24 | 100 | Partnership | Cross-industry Complementary | -21.5%from $159.04 | -17.2% | · | · | 30d in | SEC |
| Ares Management ARES | 2026-04-09 | 2026-07-24 | 106 | Empire-building | Scale | +28.2%from $104.80 | +10.0% | · | · | 30d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Howmet Aerospace HWM | 2026-04-06 | 2026-07-24 | 109 | Empire-building | Scale | +1.5%from $236.57 | -8.4% | -14.4% | · | 90d in | SEC |
| Keysight Technologies KEYS | 2026-04-06 | 2026-07-24 | 109 | Partnership | Complementary | +2.7%from $292.92 | -20.7% | -52.7% | · | 90d in | SEC filings · Release |
| Starbucks SBUX | 2026-04-02 | 2026-07-24 | 113 | Partnership | Scale | +0.3%from $90.37 | +5.9% | -0.2% | · | 90d in | SEC |
| Clorox CLX | 2026-04-01 | 2026-07-24 | 114 | Empire-building | Complementary | -16.5%from $104.24 | -11.4% | +10.3% | · | 90d in | SEC |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-24 | 119 | Partnership | Scale | -16.9%from $18.49 | -32.0% | -10.1% | · | 90d in | SEC |
This page shows what got scored and how it moved. It does not tell you why: who the players were, what actually changed hands, or the principle underneath it. That goes out on Dealmakers Digest.
The first 90-day results land in September. Subscribe and you will hear when they do.